On Tuesday, April 19th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the expectation of economic growth for Mexico from 2.8 to 2 percent, derived in large part from the effects on supply chains due to the war in Ukraine.
When announcing its economic growth projections, the institution reported that a growth of 2 percent is expected for the country in 2022, while for the following year it is expected to be 2.5 percent.
At the Latin American level, the IMF forecasts a growth of 2.5 percent for this year, after adjusting the projections for Brazil, the first economy in the region, of 0.8 percent in 2022 and 1.4 percent in 2023.
“Overall growth in the region is expected to moderate to 2.5 percent during 2022–23,” a figure that represents a 0.1 percentage improvement over January forecasts for this year, the IMF says in its latest forecast for 2022.
World GDP contraction due to war in Ukraine
The war unleashed between Russia and Ukraine would cause a reduction in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 3.6 percent, estimated to the IMF.
According to the fund, the drop in economic growth would be 2.5 percentage points (pp) since in 2021 the institution estimated a GDP of 6.1 percent.
“Fuel and food prices have risen rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries the hardest,” the IMF said.
In addition, the institution estimates that global consumer prices will jump due to interruptions in supply chains.
Thus, war-induced commodity price increases and amplifying price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in low-income economies. from emerging markets.
He added that multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis are essential to prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage the debt overhang, address climate change and end the pandemic.