Possible cyclonic threat to the Yucatan Peninsula

Heavy rains will continue in the peninsula due to the combination of cold front number 4 with tropical waves and the Central American Giro.

Weather predictions indicate that cold front number 4 will remain stationary over the northern part of the peninsula, interacting with a tropical wave. This will favor rain potential in the region for the next few hours. However, another tropical wave would be arriving in the Western Caribbean this weekend, entering the extensive circulation of a Central American Monsoon Gyre, a circumstance that could generate a new tropical cyclone.

So far, the US National Hurricane Center considers that there is a 70% probability of cyclonic development in approximately 5 days. If this system evolves into a cyclone, it would have a great chance of fully affecting the Yucatan peninsula, especially since it is blocked to the north by the aforementioned cold front. It is still premature to predict its intensity, but the warm waters in the Caribbean would give it a lot of energy.

In this sense, it is recommended to be aware of the analysis updates and meteorological forecasts on the situation, in addition to being aware of the warnings issued by the corresponding authorities in the course of the next few days. It’s difficult to forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone, and this one is interacting with various meteorological systems and the atmosphere reflects a lot of dynamics.

Rain forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula

The combination of the meteorological systems described above will favor intense rains (75 to 100 mm per day) in Campeche and Yucatán for the next 72 hours, as well as very heavy rains (50 to 75 mm per day) in Quintana Roo. It is not ruled out that the rains are accompanied by abundant electrical activity and gusts of strong wind. In coastal areas, waterspouts could occur.

Temperature forecast

Maximum temperatures of between 30 ° C and 35 ° C (85 to 95 Fahrenheit) are expected in the states of Yucatán and Campeche, while in Quintana Roo, thermometers could be reaching maximums of around 30 ° C. The thermal sensations due to the effect of humidity could reach up to 40 ° C (104 Fahrenheit). 

Minimum temperatures of between 20 ° C and 25 ° C are expected in the 3 states of the region.

Wind forecast

Variable direction winds will blow with top speeds of between 30 and 40 km / h. It is probable that in the coastal areas of Yucatan and Campeche a moderate “north” event will continue with maximum winds of up to 50 km / h.

PRESS RELEASE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

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