Home Feature The forecast for Mexico is 152,000 deaths from Covid if measures are relaxed.

The forecast for Mexico is 152,000 deaths from Covid if measures are relaxed.

by Yucatan Times
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The University of Washington estimates a scenario of 152 thousand deaths for March; experts ask to promote the massive use of a face mask to avoid it.

MEXICO CITY (El Universal) – In the next three months, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington expects Mexico to count 145,000 deaths per Covid-19, in the best scenario, and 152,000 in the worst, if hygiene measures are relaxed.

In this regard, specialists consider that the government can still modify its strategy, but it must work in synergy with society to reduce the number of infections and deaths.

According to the latest estimates of IHME, it is estimated that by March 1st, Mexico will accumulate 145 thousand deaths; however, in a scenario where the massive use of a face mask is adopted, the mathematical model projects 10 thousand fewer deaths.

In contrast, if we relax the measures, both of the use of mask and the healthy distance, the institute foresees 152 thousand deaths for the same date.

The institute’s figures indicate that the second wave of Covid-19 in Mexico will be less intense than the first, with fewer infections and an average of between 400 and 500 deaths per day, with a peak between December 29 and 31 and a drop throughout January.

“The government can improve or modify its strategy to face the Covid-19, implement the use of the mask. Although it is not necessary to use the public force, they could work on campaigns to promote this tool’s massive use. However, it is not enough that the hospital network is extended or that the mitigation measures are made known. Society must also team up with the authorities and respect the hygiene and healthy distance measures; if the measures are relaxed, the numbers are not going to decrease”. Affirms Alejandro Macias, infectious disease specialist of the UNAM.

The IHME report highlights that the winter season will put extreme pressure on hospital beds and intensive care units in most states.

“Most state health systems will experience extreme stress in their hospital bed and intensive care capacity from November through February. The most affected entities would be Aguascalientes, Baja California, Coahuila, Durango, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Mexico City, State of Mexico, Nayarit, Nuevo Leon, Puebla, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas, in general beds”.

Samuel Ponce de León, an expert in infectious diseases by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), says that Mexicans will have to live with the virus until a vaccine appears. Although it is expected that the second wave will be less catastrophic in terms of mortality, this will depend on the adoption of sanitary measures by the population.

Differences with the European countries
In this context, even though Andrés Manuel López Obrador assured that in Spain, the situation due to the pandemic is worse, the data for excess mortality or deaths that were not expected for 2020 show that Mexico surpasses the European country.

Until the second week of October, Mexico reported a surplus of 203,231 deaths compared to 2019, while Spain has 56,394 more deaths than last year. When considering the total population, the Republic registered an excess of 1,610 deaths per million inhabitants and the Iberian country of 1,225 per million.

As for the excess mortality by Covid-19, Spain explains 60% of the unexpected deaths due to the pandemic; Mexico barely exceeds 40% in official figures.

In this regard, Rodolfo de la Torre, Director of Social Development of the Espinosa Yglesias Study Center, considers that this does not mean that other conditions caused the other deaths, but that it may be due to the lack of tests to detect Covid and that, due to the pandemic, attention to other ailments was reduced.

“According to official figures, 40% of the excess deaths are due to SARS- CoV-2, but this amount could be much higher if we take into account that Mexico is one of the countries with less application of Covid tests,” the specialist points out.

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