The relocation of companies (nearshoring) has generated a positive effect on the industrial real estate market, which this year could grow above 6.6%, said Gerardo Ramirez, national industrial director of JLL Mexico.
He revealed that during the first semester, a growth of 2.87% was reported in the industrial warehouse market due to the arrival of companies to Mexico for reasons such as the trade conflict between China and the United States and the rise in oil prices derived from the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has reduced the expansion of European companies.
Mexico has received a lot of attention on the industrial side from automotive, aerospace, food, household goods, consumer goods, etc., not only from China but also from global companies with European headquarters. The country is growing and if the industrial sector is growing, housing, offices, and retail are growing. In the Monterrey-Saltillo area there is an explosion of all types of housing, such as social, medium, and high-interest,” he said in an interview with Excélsior.
He added that the areas that are booming the most are Monterrey-Saltillo and Bajío and to a lesser extent Mexicali, Tijuana, and Ciudad Juárez. “There is demand for all types of industrial, production, manufacturing, and distribution warehouses and this 2.6% growth makes us see that Mexico is moving forward. The Bajío had a small slowdown due to the lack of arrival of projects, but also due to the violence, but it is still growing”.
The specialist added that the arrival of investments is creating more jobs, which in turn boosts office occupancy, for example, in Monterrey this indicator was at 25%; however, in the last quarter, it dropped to 22%. According to JLL data, in the case of offices in Mexico City, the vacancy rate went from 23.6% at the end of 2022 to 23.3% in the first half of the year. The vacancy rate in Tijuana is 4.71%, both in Class A offices.
Gerardo Ramírez anticipated that the demand for square meters would continue to rise for at least the next three to four years and the only thing that could have an adverse effect would be a recession in the United States, as companies would have a slowdown.
Regarding the development of other areas in the country, such as in the south with the arrival of the Inter-Oceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), he indicated that there are possibilities as long as the federal government pays special attention to the attraction of anchor companies and the generation of incentives that equalize the operating conditions concerning their current location.
The poles are being created, but they must be provided with housing infrastructure, schools, roads, etc., and provide security to investors and the general population; the federal government has a lot of work to do”.
Regarding the upcoming change of government, the specialist does not foresee a deceleration or delay effect on industries, since the markets are already considering certain factors.
Ramírez pointed out that where he does see a burden for the industry to continue developing is that there is not enough electric infrastructure to receive all the companies that are looking to set up in any part of the Mexican Republic.
To the extent that the Federal Electricity Commission becomes aware and acts by providing electric infrastructure, the arrival of companies could also accelerate. Now there is a lack of generating plants and the transmission lines are saturated”.