Home Headlines Tropical development in the Caribbean could become a cyclone in 5 days

Tropical development in the Caribbean could become a cyclone in 5 days

by Yucatan Times
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A tropical system named Invest 95L is moving slowly in a north-northwest direction, with the viability of becoming a tropical storm in the next 2 days and possibly a cyclone Lisa in the next 96 hours, confirmed the National Meteorological Service.

The path of this tropical phenomenon is strengthening and mathematical models indicate that it will be approaching Quintana Roo in the next 48 hours. The Conagua detailed in its report the tracking of this system that is currently located in the southern arc of the Lesser Antilles – off the coast of Panama – and is slowly advancing over the waters of the Caribbean.

At this moment, the National Hurricane Center of Florida reported the tracking of areas in the southern perimeter of the Caribbean Sea and that it would affect areas of Central America. The activity of the phenomena is still uncertain, thus, Invest 95L has a 70 percent chance of becoming a hurricane in the next five days.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure is located in open waters of the Atlantic near the Bermuda Islands, but its condition is less affected and its probabilities of reaching the category of tropical depression are 20% in five days.

Weather specialists detail that, if a named tropical depression or tropical storm forms, it would carry the name Lisa, and would be the twelfth of the Atlantic season. This season is currently a little more than a month away from its official end and has a lower activity than normal.

Conagua detailed that, if the strengthening process of the Invest 95L system continues and storm Lisa forms, it would be crossing the south of the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, which would leave heavy rains in the northern part of the state, while the southern part of the state would receive a good amount of rain, as this phenomenon passes, without crossing Yucatan territory.

Conagua forecasts that environmental conditions are propitious for gradual development over the next few days, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form this weekend or early next week, as the cyclone moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea towards the coasts of Belize and southern Quintana Roo.

Monitoring establishes the probability of formation in 48 hours is low, up to 30%. The 5-day probability is high, at 70%. The most likely track for 95L would be somewhere in Central America by mid to late next week.

Central America was recently affected -on October 10- by storm Julia, which left 25 people dead as it passed through Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, and left substantial damage and economic losses in the social and agricultural sectors.

Now, 20 days later, a new tropical threat is approaching this territory, which still remains impacted and damaged by tropical phenomenon Julia.

In its case, for Yucatan, some moderate rains are expected this Saturday due to the influence of our Mayan trough. Temperatures will continue to be hot with average temperatures of 32 degrees Celsius in the center of Yucatan.

TYT Newsroom

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