A 90% probability of cyclonic development for the Caribbean area and the Yucatan Peninsula in the coming days.
(Merida – ClimaYucatan) – The probabilities of cyclonic formation over the Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula have increased notably in the last hours, indicating a possible threat since mid-week even for the Yucatan Peninsula. Some predictions indicate that this possible cyclone would pass very close or even impact the Peninsula, but nothing is certain.
Forecast updates indicate that the tropical wave and low pressure with cyclonic development potential over the Atlantic is strengthening. Due to this situation, the U.S. National Hurricane Center increased the probability of cyclonic development over the Caribbean Sea to 90%. Forecasts suggest a tropical cyclone could form in the next few hours, reaching the central Caribbean by the weekend.
An intensification could occur early next week, and we will most likely have Tropical Cyclone “Hermine” arriving in the Western Caribbean by Tuesday at the latest. From this moment on, it is very important to be alert to the evolution of this system since there are scenarios that indicate that it will move towards Cuba and the Yucatan Channel or even towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Some predictions suggest that it could have already become a hurricane.
Strong storms and probable turbulence for this Wednesday
Its final path will depend a lot on the position of the Atlantic ridge since if it weakens, the possible cyclone will move to the northwest, hooking up with a mid-latitude trough, avoiding the Peninsula. On the other hand, if the Atlantic high-pressure ridge strengthens, it will exert a blockade over the Gulf, pushing the possible “Hermine” towards the peninsular area. Therefore, it is recommended to keep abreast of the evolution of this system and forecasts, in addition to the recommendations issued by Civil Protection in case of a threat.