As part of the continuous monitoring of tropical storm “Ian”, with hurricane potential, the State Civil Protection Coordination (Coordinación Estatal de Protección Civil: Provicy) declared a Blue Alert (minimum danger) for 27 municipalities in the east and northeast of the state.
Without any danger of direct impact to the Yucatan Peninsula for the moment, “Ian” was located this afternoon some 930 kilometers southeast of Yucatan and, with a west northwest direction, it is heading towards Cuba and later to the Florida Peninsula, in the southern United States.
According to satellite data compiled by the State Monitoring and Warning System (Sistema Estatal de Monitoreo y Alertamiento SEMA), tropical storm “Ian” was located southwest of Jamaica and is moving in a west-northwest direction at 19 km/h with winds of 75 km/h and gusts of 92 km/h.
According to forecast models, this Monday, September 26th, Ian could become a category 3 hurricane with winds in excess of 120 km/h to the west of Jamaica and, if it maintains its northwesterly direction, it would impact the west of the island of Cuba on Tuesday, September 27, probably as a category 4.
If it continues its trajectory towards the largest Antillean island, even though it will be out of direct range, “Ian” will bring tropical maritime air to the peninsula from September 26th to 27th, and on the 28th it will gradually diminish.
Given the proximity of the system, it is expected that part of a load of humidity and winds will reach the east of the state of Yucatán, hence Procivy authorities have issued a blue traffic light or minimum danger.
Therefore, light and scattered rains are expected in the morning, moderate with showers and punctually strong in the afternoon, as well as wind speeds above 40 km/h.
The municipalities that are part of the minimum alert are Buctzotz, Calotmul, Cantamayec, Cuncunul, Chankom, Chemax, Chichimilá, Chikindzonot, Dzitás, Espita, Kaua, Panabá, Peto, Quintana Roo, Río Lagartos, San Felipe, Sotuta, Sucilá, Tahdziú, Tekom, Temozón, Tinum, Tixcacalcupul, Tizimín, Uayma, Valladolid and Yaxcabá.
The head of Procivy informed that, together with the municipal authorities of the east and the National Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua: Conagua), permanent attention is being paid to the evolution of this tropical storm in order to activate the corresponding protocols in case there are indications of a change in its trajectory.
Procivy recommended the population adopt measures by keeping updated on the tropical storm’s evolution through social networks, which, he emphasized, does not represent any danger for the state so far.
“We are monitoring several aspects that indicate Ian’s behavior, such as the water temperature in the area, atmospheric pressure, and the cold front in a very special way because it will greatly influence its behavior”, informed the official.
“We are also following the different trajectory models of the system, in order to detect any data that could reveal significant changes, although up to now, its behavior has been in accordance with the forecast,” he added
The forecast for these days due to the proximity of “Ian” is that we will have a constant passage of humidity and cloudiness, as well as the effects of the prefrontal trough of the cold front that is approaching the Gulf of Mexico, which is precisely what will be influencing its trajectory.
We are going to have cloudy days, with little drop in temperature, and we are expecting showers and rains similar to those announced during the peak of the rainy season, up to 40 mm, and 30 mm in the different regions of Yucatán, of which we will be informing daily of the different precipitations that occur. Although we are out of the range of wind or rainfall action directly related to the tropical cyclone, Alcocer Basto emphasized.
The recommendations to the population are to be very attentive because at the end of the day it is not a very distant cyclone that is estimated to pass 300 to 350 km from the state, and its closest area to us will be in its most benign quadrant which is the southeast since its damaging quadrant is the northeast part of “Ian”, which will pass over Cuba and then to Florida,” said the official.
It is also recommended to be aware of official information, to review their general preparations for the hurricane season, such as checking the condition of the roof of their house, sewages, drains, the conditions of their home, to have a plan in case there is a tropical cyclone warning for the region. If they prefer not to stay at home, people must go to a relative’s or friend’s house or to one of the temporary shelters activated.
The most important thing is to be well informed, not to share rumors or alarming false information, and to be alert to the behavior of “Ian” in the Caribbean Sea through official social networks such as those of @procivy.