Tropical Storm Grace is forecast to strengthen in the Caribbean.
August 17, 2021, (Weather.com).- Tropical Storm Grace is expected to intensify over the northwest Caribbean and eventually threaten parts of Mexico later this week.
A hurricane watch is now posted for a portion of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun. A hurricane watch is posted 48 hours prior to when the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds might occur.
Tropical storm watches and warnings are also in effect for parts of the northwest Caribbean Islands.
The long-term forecast path for Grace has steadily shifted southward over the past couple of days. Upper-level high pressure to its north is now expected to be strong enough to not allow Grace to move as far north as previously expected.
Grace is forecast to steadily gain strength in the northwest Caribbean over the next day or so. The storm could then impact Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as a strong tropical storm or hurricane by late Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Land interaction might weaken Grace some before it remerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche) later Thursday. Grace could be a strong tropical storm or hurricane prior to making a final landfall in northeast Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday.
Grace will be a heavy rain threat regardless of its future wind strength.
Storm total rainfall in Haiti could be 5 to 10 inches (locally up 15 inches). This rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous terrain of that country.
Parts of Jamaica, southern Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula might see 3 to 6 inches of rainfall (locally up to 6 inches). Flash flooding is possible in all of those countries.
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