Tropical cyclone threat continues towards the Yucatan Peninsula

Important changes in the forecast of trajectory and affectations that could be generated by the possible tropical cyclone that would move towards the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend.

Mérida, Yucatán, (August 26, 2021).- A new scenario emerges for this weekend regarding the possible impact of a tropical cyclone in the Yucatan Peninsula. The environmental conditions have changed and it is likely that there will be another trajectory and effects compared to what was previously anticipated. However, we must be aware of possible new changes.

At the beginning of this week, the forecast indicated that a tropical cyclone would form in the Caribbean from a tropical wave and a monsoon gyre, and would impact the south of Quintana Roo over the weekend as a tropical storm so that no later than Sunday it would be leaving the Gulf of Mexico through Campeche heading northwest, intensifying to a hurricane; but now, the panorama has changed a little, especially in the storm’s trajectory.

Forecast updates indicate that the possible tropical cyclone approaching the Peninsula could drift further north. Still, this is not definitive.

Servicio Metereológico Nacional

The new scenario indicates that in effect, we would still have the formation of a possible tropical storm over the western Caribbean, although in this new forecast update the trajectory would be further north, which indicates that the center of this cyclone would cross in the area of Cancun or Riviera Maya heading northeast. In fact, it is not ruled out that it may deviate a little more, avoiding the peninsula through the Yucatan Canal, through the Gulf of Mexico, probably moving towards the United States as a hurricane.

The main factor that would change the trajectory is a vortex in the upper levels of the troposphere located over the Gulf of Mexico, which will induce an extensive trough. This same trough will weaken the influence of the Atlantic ridge, generating a channel through which the possible cyclone would escape to the north. In previous scenarios, there were no modifications.

#MeteoredMX
Se vigila una onda tropical sobre el Caribe que tiene alta probabilidad de convertirse en ciclón tropical.

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— Meteored.mx (@meteoredmx) August 25, 2021

There is no definitive forecast yet

With this new perspective, the effects of this probable cyclonic formation would be much smaller, limited to heavy rains in the eastern part of the peninsula as well as strong winds in coastal areas of northern Quintana Roo and the east coast of Yucatan that could reach top speeds of up to 70 km / h .

However, there is still no definitive forecast, since everything will depend on the interaction of this cyclone with the instability generated by the vortices and trough over the Gulf of Mexico and the behavior of the Atlantic ridge. 

There would be a clearer picture of the situation on Friday 27, but it is important to note that there is still a threat to the peninsular area. 

So far the National Hurricane Center of the United States considers that this tropical system has an 80% probability of cyclonic development in the next few days.

Source: Meteored