OPINION, June 04, 2021, By Carlos Loret de Mola.- If the elections for federal representatives were held today, Morena will not achieve the qualified majority, even with the support of his allies. The ruling party needs that majority to be able to change the Constitution or appoint electoral advisers. To obtain it, Morena will be forced to negotiate with legislators from the PRI, PAN, PRD, or Movimiento Ciudadano ( MC ), according to the results of the national Latinus-Reforma survey.
However, Morena will achieve the simple majority on its own, the one required to change laws or approve the budget. In addition, if we add the allies, the Green Party ( PVEM ) and the Labor Party ( PT ), Morena will be able to achieve this absolute majority with ease.
In the national vote for the Chamber of Representatives, the Morena coalition has a total of 48%: Morena has 43%; the PVEM, 3%, and the PT, just 2%. The PRI-PAN-PRD alliance has 40%: PRI, with 20%; PAN, 18% and PRD, with 2%. The third in contention is MC, with 7%.
Fuerza Por Mexico and Partido Encuentro Social ( PES ) have only 1% each, while Redes Sociales Progresistas does not even reach a one-percent figure. So these small, newly created parties are at risk of losing their official registration as political parties, just like the PVEM, the PT, the PRD, and the PES.
The perception of AMLO and his government
Regarding the perception of the electorate about Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 56% approve of his management as president and 42% disapprove. Although it is a good level of popularity, it is noticeably lower than its best mark of 80%.
Despite López Obrador’s level of approval, his management is not well evaluated in most of the most relevant problems for the country. Regarding security, 49% of the participants think that he have acted wrong, while only 27% believe that their actions have been correct.
Respondents also negatively rated his management in the fight against poverty, the country’s economy, health, the fight against corruption, and his treatment of the feminist movement .
Only in education and social programs does he get well qualified, although they are also low marks.
Regarding the Covid-19 crisis, 56% endorse López Obrador’s management in the face of the pandemic, while 40% disapprove of it. Regarding the federal government’s strategy against drug trafficking, 61% consider that it is not working and 31% believe that it is working.
In addition, 47% think that things are not so bad in the country as to return to the government of the PRI or the PAN , but 38% consider that Mexico was better off without Andrés Manuel López Obrador .
Regarding the acceptance of Morena in the country, each region has its own perception. Of the people consulted in the Latinus-Reforma survey in the first constituency, which includes Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Durango, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and Sonora, only 38% support the president’s party.
In the second constituency, where Aguascalientes, Coahuila, Guanajuato, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas are located, Morena has 32% acceptance.
In the third constituency (Campeche, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán), the party founded by López Obrador has 46% of the preferences, while in the fifth (Colima, Hidalgo, State of Mexico and Michoacán), it reaches 48%.
The fourth constituency, which includes Mexico City, Guerrero, Morelos, Puebla, and Tlaxcala, is the one that most favors Morena, with 50% acceptance.
Regarding the control of the Chamber of Representatives, 42% believe that it is best for Morena to retain the majority to support the president’s policies. On the other hand, 35% affirmed that the best thing would be a united opposition that counterbalances López Obrador.
When comparing the parties, the people consulted in the Latinus-Reforma survey think that Morena is the one that has benefited the most those who have the least, the one who inspires the most confidence, cares more about the people and the one with the best proposals, among other aspects.
The PRI was the one with the worst ratings. Respondents consider it the one that has done the most damage to the country, the one that steals the most when he governs, the most ‘macho’ and the one with the most ties to organized crime, but he is also perceived as the party that gives the best gifts in the campaign.
On the other hand, when evaluating the confidence of citizens in the authorities facing this Sunday’s elections, the INE has a better position than the president, with 62% approval, while López Obrador has 53% confidence. 49% said they trust the Electoral Tribunal, and political parties are the worst qualified, with only 30%.
Finally, 49% think that the president should not be speaking about electoral matters, while 44% say that he has the right to have an opinion.