Mérida, Yucatán (June 14, 2021).- One of the consequences observed in recent years of climate change is a pattern of more intense hurricane seasons. An example was 2020, and forecasts indicate that this year will be no different.
The meteorologist and hydrology expert from the Autonomous University of Yucatán (UADY), Juan Vázquez Montalvo, reported that this year it is not expected to reach the number of meteorological phenomena as in last season where 30 were registered, although not all they reached hurricanes, some caused significant damage.
“At an international level, the National Hurricane Center in Miami established a new hurricane average that is 14, when before it was 12. This is due to observing the seasons from 1991 to 2020 from formation to fading cyclones, so it was determined this year that the probable number of named storms will increase, ” he explained.
Since 2005, 28 hurricanes were formed, and in 2020 when there were 30 phenomena of this type; This year the formation is expected, according to the National Water Commission (Conagua), between 15 and 20 cyclones, of which 8 to 11 would be tropical storms; 4 to 5 hurricanes category 1 and 2, and from 3 to 4 reach categories 3, 4 and 5.
“Everything that happened last year, where there was a rise in the water table caused by the heavy rains left by storm ‘Cristóbal’, then hurricanes ‘Gama’, ‘Delta’ and ‘Zeta’ is a consequence of climate change. Last year there was the presence of the La Niña phenomenon, as in 2021, so there is the facility of the formation of cyclones with greater intensity ”, he added.
An example of the impact that the planet has had is that the names of the hurricanes proposed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ended and the Greek alphabet had to be used, which for this year was eliminated due to the confusion that was caused.
“In 1933, the 21 names for tropical cyclones from the list established by the World Meteorological Organization were used for the first time; In 2005 the same thing happened and the Greek alphabet had to be enabled for the first time and in this 2020 in less time, the same event occurred where nine names were enabled that were not in the original list, but belong to the Hellenic alphabet ”, he explained.
For the also member of the Institutional Committee for the Attention of Extreme Meteorological Phenomena (Ciafeme), the fact that the list with Greek names disappears is one more consequence of climate change because now the external list will be with names that are known in zone four of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. There are in Spanish, English, and French, which will be fixed and will disappear if they impact leaving important effects.
“We are already seeing a pattern, considering a change, where tropical cyclones are formed in greater intensity with different behavior. No season is like another, just as hurricanes are never the same, but what we are seeing is the phenomena that are formed move much slower and cause greater destruction. Now there is no small enemy, before they were afraid of hurricanes with categories starting at three, four, or five, but now anyone can cause destruction, and in 2020 it was demonstrated with the tropical storm ‘Cristóbal’, ” he said.