Mèrida, Yucatàn (May 07, 2021).- Atmospheric circulation patterns are already beginning to gradually change from this week, showing the first signs that the rainy season is coming. However, in some areas of the peninsula, the rain could be arriving earlier than expected, that is before May 15th, when it officially begins in our region.
Weather predictions indicate that from this week instability will increase in the region, which will be of tropical characteristics. It should be noted that generally in winter and spring the cold fronts and associated troughs are the main precursors of precipitation in the area, however, on this occasion, the storms will be associated with a system of tropical characteristics. Generally, the main providers of rain for the season are tropical waves, although the first of the year has not yet appeared. However, they may start to appear shortly.
It is an extensive trough in the upper levels of the troposphere that extends from Central America to southern Mexico and the Peninsula. This meteorological system will remain over the area this week, causing instability, which in combination with the entry of warm and humid air from the oceans and daytime warming, will cause scattered storms.
Due to the location of the system, the most intense rains would occur over the states of Chiapas, Tabasco, Oaxaca, and Campeche, although it is not ruled out that they will spread more dispersed towards Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
With the atmospheric patterns described above, the first signs are established that the rainy season is approaching in the region, which begins on May 15. However, in Campeche the season would be moving forward a few days before.
For its part, the Regional Hydrometeorological Center of CONAGUA announced that the rains for this beginning of the season would be above average. According to the official forecast, for this month of May, it is estimated that it will rain up to more than 75% above the average in several areas of Yucatán, Campeche, and Quintana Roo, a situation that would be similar for next June.
The report shows that for these two months there would be no negative precipitation anomalies, which indicates that the rainy season would be active at the beginning. Consequently, the abnormally dry area that had appeared in eastern Yucatán in mid-April, according to the National Meteorological Service, could disappear; keeping the Yucatan peninsula out of some drought status.
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