Mèrida, Yucatàn, April 30, 2021, (YUCATAN AHORA).- Officially, the rainy season in our country begins on May 15, as does the tropical cyclone season in the Pacific Ocean. However, medium and long-term meteorological predictions indicate that in the region of the Yucatan Peninsula, the rains could come ahead about a week earlier.
It is estimated that atmospheric circulation patterns will begin to change to those that typically occur in the rainy season from the middle of next week. For example, the ridge of the Atlantic will begin to enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the polar and subtropical jets will move further north, indicating that the cold air masses will move further and further away from our area. However, some frontal systems could still approach the Gulf of Mexico in this transition process, contributing to instability, before the first tropical waves of the year begin to appear.
In fact, meteorological predictions indicate an increase in rainfall from next week, which will generally be favored by induced or prefrontal troughs, and tropical maritime air from the Caribbean Sea in combination with daytime warming. This trend will continue until mid-May, coinciding with the official start of the rainy season in the region. With this also, we would be ending the cold fronts season in the area.
The formation of a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean, a typical and frequent phenomenon in the rainy season, has not yet been observed. However, these are likely to start to appear in late May. Meanwhile, the first rains of the season will be generated by meteorological systems of this transition period. Anticyclonic blockades would tend to decrease.
How does the 2021 rainy season start?
According to climate predictions, May could be particularly wetter than normal in the Yucatán peninsula, since it is estimated that it rains up to Yucatán, Campeche, and Quintana Roo just over 25 mm above the monthly average. This would help reduce the abnormally dry situation that began to manifest itself in eastern Yucatán and keep the peninsula out of any risk of drought.
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