MIAMI, Florida (El Financiero). – There are only 40 days until the United States’ presidential elections. Democrat Joe Biden’s advantage has remained a constant in all the polls and, except for a few drastic and unexpected turns, always possible in politics.
The alert bells should ring in Mexico’s National Palace. Perhaps you can imagine how Biden’s team felt when Mexico’s president went to Washington to endorse Donald Trump hastily and unnecessarily.
Until now, the only official channel that could carry out these functions, which are more political than diplomatic, is the coordinator of advisers to the Presidency, Lázaro Cárdenas Batel. The elections are not tomorrow, it is true, but the numbers suggest that the Mexican government’s bet in favor of Trump is on the way to failure.
Seen in the percentage of national preferences, Biden’s advantage over Trump is seven points: 50.4 against 43.4.
Even if the needle moves and the gap narrows, the difference in the number of probable delegates to the Electoral College is overwhelming: 353 for Biden and President Trump would correspond only 185, according to the mapping of surveys by the state that the RealClearPolitics site averages.
270 electoral votes are needed to win this country’s presidency, which seems like a difficult mission, too uphill for the candidate for reelection, because they do not give him the numbers.
On Wednesday, there was good news for Trump (and fresh air for the government of Mexico), a survey by The Washington Post newspaper was released. According to it, Trump was above Biden 51 to 47 in Florida and Arizona, by one point: 49-48.
Not even then could he beat Biden, even though they are two very important states, considered ‘swing’ and consequently ‘battlefields.’ Florida has 29 votes for the Electoral College and Arizona 11.
Even considering the WP poll, the polls’ average gives Biden a 1.4 percent lead over Trump in Florida and 4.0 percent in Arizona.
Trump could secure Florida if he nominates Miami-born Cuban-born federal judge Barbara Lagoa for the Supreme Court vacancy.
The five key states are Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. According to the RealClearPolitics ‘Poll Poll’, Pennsylvania is led by Biden by 4.1 points difference.
Michigan also, by 6.4 percent – due in large part to the very good management of the governor, a Democrat, in the face of the pandemic.
And in Wisconsin, the scene of recent police abuses against blacks and racial riot, Biden’s lead over Trump is 6.5 percentage points.
So, even losing Florida and Arizona, Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris would rise with victory on November 3. In 40 days, then.
It remains to be seen how Mexico’s government heals the wound left among Democrats by the president’s visit to Donald Trump, which served as propaganda for the reelection candidate in commercials on television, social networks, and the Republican Convention.
The Democratic plan for the bilateral relationship has two points that are not in Trump’s: democracy and the environment.
The last word has not been said yet. This has a state that this time will be the key to the White House, on which we will comment on Monday: Pennsylvania.
For El Financiero
Pablo Hiriart – Miami Florida