MÉRIDA, YUCATAN.- For the second half of August, the meteorological conditions in the southeastern region of the country will become particularly unstable, which will favor heavy rains. This situation is associated with the combination of mid-latitude meteorological systems with tropical characteristics.
According to meteorological predictions, the Yucatan peninsula, southeast Mexico, and Central America will be under the influence of a convective pattern of the Madden-Julian oscillation. It is worth remembering that this oscillation moves from west to east over the tropics and consists of a convective phase (intense storm formation) and a subsided phase (small storm activity). On this occasion, the area of greatest activity will be located in the aforementioned areas.
To this will be added the anomalous incursion into the Gulf of Mexico of a mid-latitude trough, reflected in higher levels of the troposphere, a condition that will provide divergence and advection of colder air at those levels. The combination of the thermal and dynamic characteristics of this trough with the concentration of warm, humid and unstable air that will be located in the southeast region of Mexico could give rise to significant rains, possibly accompanied by strong winds and hailstorms.
The arrival of a new tropical wave is also likely for the weekend, which, according to the forecasts, could gain a lot of energy due to its interaction with the strong instability already established over the Western Caribbean area, associated with the meteorological systems already described.
Significant rainfall and possible cyclonic development
The amounts of precipitation that will be manifesting in the course of this second half of August would be up to 50 mm above the average in much of the peninsula, and up to 200 mm above the average in states in the southeast of the country, such as Chiapas and Tabasco.
Finally, the predictions indicate that there is a remote probability that a zone of instability with the potential for cyclonic development will form from next weekend over the Central American region. In this sense, it is important to be aware of the evolution of tropical meteorological systems from now on.
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