UNAM specialists believe Trump has a strategic advantage over Joe Biden

The race for the U.S. presidency is going through a relatively strategic advantage for the current president and Republican contender, Donald Trump, over Joe Biden, according to this analysis. 

The analysis was released by UNAM academics, who evaluated the tactical and strategic contrasts between the Democrat and Republican presidential campaigns, and where Donald Trump seems to be better positioned. 

According to the analysis, although in recent weeks Joe Biden seemed to be ahead in national surveys and even when his rise inside the Democratic Party has been consistent, the academics indicate that Trump has an advantage over Biden amid the race for the U.S. presidency.

The analysis indicates that “this is the result of among other reasons (…), the fact that it is crisis events that have become negative events for the presidency of Trump and his course of action/reaction to them is in the process of being critically appraised but not yet conclusive by the electorate.”

They add that to vilify Donald Trump, you require political charisma and that Biden hasn’t been able to build a successful presidential campaign.

The analysis explains that for Joe Biden, tactical and media oxygen provided by his choice of running mate, who will accompany him as Vice-president, how they perform during the campaign, and the presidential debates in the upcoming months. 

In the case of Trump, “in the case of Trump, how his government processes the cycle of simultaneous crises during his campaign towards November 3, and especially how he strengthens in his favor the weaknesses of the electoral system and the pandemic crisis by inducing levels of abstention, systemic and anticipated domination of the vote by mail and with it, manipulating the rules of the game with sophisticated fraud.”

Other issues analyzed in the document are the political qualities of a possible presidential candidate; mastery of mobility and occasion; control of Congress in the previous electoral process; effective campaign message and post-constitutional debate domain; national elites and campaign financing; evaluation of public opinion on Presidency and current or previous government performance; state of the economy; the impact of the state of the pandemic and constitutional or government crisis; pair holder of formula in the Vice-presidency; the scenario of an electoral victory by the Electoral College or by the Supreme Court of Justice; progressive disfigurement of the electoral and territorial strategy of presidential opponents; alliances and coalitions with minorities and leaderships, partisan, national and local, and conquest of new voters and harmony with trends in the national socio-cultural imaginary. 

The analysis was written by Dr. Pedro Isnardo De la Cruz, a Research Coordinator of the ENTS at UNAM; Dr. Juan Carlos Barrón, the International Development and Academic Secretary of the UNAM Research Center on North America at UNAM, and Dr. Francisco, a professor at the Faculty of Political and Social Sciences at UNAM.

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Source: El Universal



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