“Mexico is far from controlling the first wave of COVID-19” – NECSI

U.S. experts warned that deaths could increase. According to the U.S. institute, up to 2,673 new cases are reported in the country every day. As of the last report from the Secretary of Health, there are 90,664 accumulated cases of coronavirus.

MEXICO CITY (Agencies) – Mexico begins to resume its activities with an accumulated 90,664 confirmed diagnoses of coronavirus and 9,930 deaths. But health authorities have warned of a possible resurgence of the disease if the population fails to implement health measures.

A study by the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) indicates that Mexico is far from controlling the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Countries in the same situation as Mexico say they must be patient because a prompt reopening of the economy represents the risk of triggering a resurgence.

“This can erase all the benefits that have been obtained so far by closing the economy. It could increase the total number of deaths, overwhelm the health systems and create a scenario where it is necessary to close again,” said NECSI, an independent education and research institute that brings together U.S. scientists and academics from Harvard, Brandeis and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

It is a research that was disseminated by the Faculty of Medicine of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in its bulletin on Covid-19. The analysis carried out with the cases provided per day and, subsequently, they obtain a weekly average to calculate each country’s situation concerning the control of the epidemic.

Following the above, Mexico has reported up to 2,673 new cases per day, which places it at a red light, as do 51 other nations. This scenario has the following interpretations: they are going down the wrong track, remain constant in the number of new cases per day, or decrease the number of cases, but very slowly.

The study mentions the following: “To eliminate the virus, the number of new cases per day must be zero. The fraction of the infected population is not what matters if a country has, for example, 100 new cases per day, that provides many new routes for the virus to continue to spread”.

Projected number of deaths
According to the mathematical model based on artificial intelligence and developed by Youyang Gu, data scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This Monday, there will be approximately 964,955 active carriers of the virus in Mexico, that is, 240,000 more cases than the previous week.

It is a model used by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. It records an error rate of less than 10% compared to confirmed figures in that country.

The Proceso magazine had access to the database. They estimate that the peak of the epidemic will be July 25th in Mexico, with 3.4 million active carriers, while the highest number of deaths will be on August 6th, with an estimated 1,934 deaths.

According to the model, by the first days of September, 131,285 people will have lost their lives in the country, equivalent to one death for every 1,000 inhabitants. According to the information obtained by the magazine, Mexico will be the nation with the highest mortality rate in the world.

The model estimates the number of people infected in a country, not just those who tested positive for COVID-19, since, according to the data scientist, “the vast majority of individuals are not tested, and therefore are not reported as positive cases.

It exemplifies that in the United States, the actual number of people infected is five times higher than reported, while in Mexico, it is 25 times higher than official figures; to date, about 2.3 million Mexicans have been infected.

The Yucatan Times
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