Mexico’s GDP will fall -7.27% in 2020: analysts

The outlook for 2021 went from growth of 1.88% to 2.52%, indicating that they foresee a moderate recovery for next year.

The expectations of economic growth for 2020 are no more. The Survey on Expectations of Specialists in Private Sector Economics: April 2020, published on May 4th, by Banco de México (Banxico), showed that the perspective of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) went from -3.99% a month ago to -7.27 percent.

Meanwhile, the growth outlook for 2021 went from 1.88% to 2.52%, indicating that they foresee a moderate recovery for next year.

Derived from this expectation, the analyst consensus anticipates a loss of 693 thousand formal jobs in 2020 and a recovery of 369 thousand by the end of 2021.

Among the factors that could hinder economic growth: “The specialists consider that, at a general level, the main factors are associated with external conditions (38%) and internal economic conditions (34%).

At a particular level, the main factors are the weakness of the external market and the world economy (26% of the responses); the uncertainty about the internal economic situation (15% of the responses); weakness in the domestic market (14% of responses); public spending policy (11% of responses); and internal political uncertainty (9% of the responses) ”.

Regarding the exchange rate perspective for the end of the year, it went from 22.27 to 23.36 pesos per dollar. While in terms of interest rates, the consensus of analysts anticipates that they end the year at 4.82%, when the expectation one month ago was 5.6 percent.

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