Coronavirus outbreak in Mexico will occur between March 20 and 30

Dr. Gustavo Cruz, a member of the Institute of Applied Mathematics and Systems Research (IIMAS) of the Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), explained that the spread is inevitable… it is only a matter of time before the biggest infectious outbreak affects Mexico.

MEXICO CITY (Times Media Mexico/UNAM) – The number of people infected with coronavirus in Mexico rises to 12; however, there are 49 cases under investigation. The Director-General of Epidemiology reported that four new cases of Covid-19 were added in the country, two of them in the CoMx; he reported that 49 suspected persons are being followed up.

The general director of Epidemiology, José Luis Alomía, reported that there are already 12 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Mexico, of which 8 are men and four women; he also warned that there are 49 suspected cases. He added that the seven confirmed cases were joined by five new ones, which correspond to people with a history of travel to Europe.

The first five new cases of Covid-19

  • The first case is a man who resides in Querétaro and who recently traveled to Spain; he is currently in isolation at home because he does not present intense symptoms and had contact with two people.
  • The second new case is a 41-year-old man from Mexico City who recently traveled to Spain. He is in home isolation.
  • The other patient who tested positive is a 30-year-old woman who lives in Mexico City and who has mild symptoms. Like the previous case, she recently traveled to Spain. 
  • The fourth case is a woman living in the State of Mexico, whose symptoms are mild; she recently traveled to the United States.
  • The other confirmed case is that of a 57-year-old man who resides in Nuevo Leon and who has a history of traveling to London, Munich, and Madrid.

The director mentioned that 222 identified contacts are under follow-up, out of 11 of the 12 confirmed cases, of which four presented symptoms; however, three already tested negative to Covid-19. 

Likewise, one person was detected as a carrier in the state of Puebla, since he tested positive but did not present symptoms, and this person traveled to Italy.

Coronavirus outbreak in Mexico will occur between March 20 and 30
According to a mathematical model implemented by a UNAM researcher, the outbreak will occur in the next few days.

The increasing cases of people infected by coronavirus (COVID-19) are causing great fear at a global level, so several countries have implemented some measures to prevent the further spread of the virus; however, compared to other entities, our country remains in a very low range of people carrying the infection, although this situation could change in the coming days.

Dr. Gustavo Cruz, a member of the Institute of Applied Mathematics and Systems Research (IIMAS) of the Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), explained that the spread is inevitable, so it is only a matter of time before the biggest infectious outbreak affects Mexico.

The doctor has developed a mathematical model in which he has shown that the estimates of such an outbreak would occur between March 20 and 30, 2020, data that will help take strict measures to prevent further infections. 

Mathematical models estimate coronavirus outbreak in Mexico
In the spring of 2009, when the influenza A (H1N1) crisis broke out in Mexico City, Dr. Gustavo Cruz helped design a mathematical model capable of determining the advance and speed of the infections.

“The basis of this work is a classic 1927 model devised by Scottish doctors W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick, which uses a system of differential equations to detail how an infectious outbreak emerges, its growth, at what point it reaches its maximum, and how it then declines, all based on two parameters: one biological and one social. In this case, we have complemented these differential equations with classical diffusion to form what is known as a reaction-diffusion system”, revealed the researcher.

The concept called “basic reproductive number” or R0, reveals the data of how many people could be infected with a disease, which is calculated by equations that are formed based on the number of patients and the probability of infecting other people.

It’s worth mentioning that this is not the first time Gustavo Cruz studies infectious outbreaks since, in 2009, he collaborated in the development of the model when the Type A (H1N1) influenza crisis hit the country, which was able to determine the advance and speed of contagion.

Besides, he estimated the date when the greatest number of cases would be registered, and the effectiveness of the measures applied at that time. This experience has led him to work on the model that anticipates the behavior of the coronavirus.

The Yucatan Times
Newsroom



Comments

comments

doctoranytime BUSQUE A UN MÉDICO