Economists worldwide forecast a recession in the US

The US economy appears to go into a possible recession within two years, a new survey of business economists found. The survey by the “National Association for Business Economics” shows that 72% of economists predicted that a recession would occur by the end of 2021. That’s up from 67% in February and according to data collected from more than 200 experts.

The new figure shows that 38% of economists who say they expect the recession to strike in 2020 34% say they see the US economy falling in 2021. In a survey conducted in February, 42% said they saw a 2020 collapse, and 25% forecasted one in 2021.

The survey was taken before the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on July 31 and before data pointed to heightened recession concerns in financial markets.

National Association for Business Economics.

Stocks have dropped sharply last week after a key recession signal flashed for the first time since before the global financial crisis in 2007. Economists and investors have also become increasingly jittery about escalating trade tensions between the US and China, which the business economists recently cited as a risk.

That contrasts with recent comments from the White House, which has maintained a far rosier view of the economy than both private and government experts. The Trump administration has repeatedly promised the economy would grow at or above 3% throughout its term.

However, it’s going to take a while for American farmers, and US businesses that have been affected by the trade war with China, to get back on their feet again.

Deere, the agricultural company, reported earnings and sales that missed Wall Street forecasts last Friday. Revenue, overall, fell 3% from a year ago. The company’s CEO, Samuel Allen, said the company’s results “reflected the high degree of uncertainty that continues to overshadow the agricultural sector.”

The Trump administration has been pouring billions of dollars to farmers hurt by the trade war. It’s expected to begin paying $14.5 billion by the end of August, the second round of aid that the Trump administration has rolled to farmers, who grow soybeans, corn and wheat.

Those farmers have been battling tariffs from China for nearly a year now. Those levies wind up make American farm products more expensive for Chinese importers, and private buyers have mostly stopped buying American-grown soybeans or wheat. But it’s not only been tariffs on China that have been hurting US industries. US Steel announced it would also be temporarily laying off 200 workers from a plant in Michigan because of softening demand for steel. The company has been struggling since the beginning of the year as demand has slowed from Europe. Not helping matters is a 25% tariff on steel imports that was imposed on in 2018.

 

The Yucatan Times
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