A cluster of thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea may develop into a tropical depression early next week once it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this disturbed area of low pressure a low chance of development through Tuesday June 21.

Infrared Satellite, Potential Tropical Development Area
Infrared Satellite, Potential Tropical Development Area — The highest cloud tops in the infrared satellite image, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the orange and red colors. The potential area of tropical development according to NHC is shown by the yellow hatched area. (Source: weather.com)

The tropical wave will be entwined in the Central American countries of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and Mexico through Saturday as the wave moves west-northwestward. This will limit development through at least Saturday.

On Sunday or Monday, the tropical wave is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche, where conditions could be favorable for development.

Interestingly, this system is likely to be pinned in the southwest Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche thanks to an expansive area of high pressure aloft, responsible for an impressive Desert Southwest heat wave.

It is likely to track into eastern Mexico or hover in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Development or not, the main impact will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms near the Mexican Gulf Coast, as well as the Yucatan peninsula.

We can’t rule out some showers and enhanced onshore winds, leading to a risk of rip currents or elevated surf reaching at least the South Texas coast next week, but, it doesn’t appear likely to adversely impact any beach plans, for now.

Tropical cyclone formation is fairly common in the Bay of Campeche and even over the Yucatán Peninsula during June.

Source: weather.com