Patricia strengthens into hurricane off the Mexican Pacific coast

Patricia strengthened into a hurricane on the early morning hours of Thursday October 22nd and is forecast to make landfall along Mexico’s Pacific coast on Friday October 23rd, where damaging winds, storm surge flooding and rainfall flooding could all be threats.

Latest Storm Status and Satellite Image

Latest Storm Status and Satellite Image

As of 7 a.m. CDT, Patricia was located about 235 miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico and 310 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. The storm is rapidly strengthening and is likely to become a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, later Thursday.

  • A hurricane warning remains in effect along the Pacific coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo.
  • Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.
  • A tropical storm watch is posted from east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within 48 hours. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area.

Tropical storm conditions are possible as early as late Thursday night in the warning areas.

The threat for wind damage and storm surge will depend on how much Patricia intensifies between now and when it makes landfall. There is at least a possibility that Patricia may rapidly intensify prior to landfall, given a favorable environment that includes very warm sea-surface temperatures.

Projected Path and Intensity

Projected Path and Intensity

Red area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone over the forecast period.

Regardless of how strong it becomes, Patricia may dump 6-12 inches (locally 20 inches) of rain over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

Assuming Patricia makes landfall as a hurricane, it would join just four other eastern Pacific hurricanes to do so this late in the season dating back to 1949, according to meteorologist Jonathan Erdman.



Once this system moves inland, mid-level moisture and energy from it may get pulled into the south-central U.S. This may add more fuel to a heavy rain and flooding threat in Texas and nearby states this weekend.





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