Despite a difficult global economic environment, faced with possible interest rates increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the economic crisis in Greece, the stock market crash in China and the low price of oil, the main stock index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), the Index of Prices and Quotations (IPC) has grown 5.93 percent so far in 2015.
However, in the first six months of the year, the indicator that brings together the 35 issuers with the highest liquidity in the market showed important losses at times, the most serious of which occurred on Jan. 30, when it fell to 40,990.03 points.
As such, the start of the year was difficult for companies listed on the BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores), as in addition to the fall on Jan. 30, the 1st, 14th and 15th also saw the most significant declines in the market in 6 months.
Because of this, Grupo Interacciones reduced its IPC target for the close of 2015 from 50,600 to 47,700 points. In its report, “Market Strategy, because better years are coming! Our vision for 2015,” the financial institution announced it anticipated volatility in the first quarter and saw 41,000 as the market entry level.
It predicted that oil would remain volatile in the first half of 2015 and that the dollar would be unlikely to return to between 13.50 and 14 pesos to the dollar in the short term. However, it did say that the time to enter the market is in sight, as the valuation of the IPC is at its lowest since 2013.
In contrast, the most significant increase took place on April 29, when the IPC finished at 45,776.42 points. This high was followed by June 26 at 45,564.71, and May 18 at 45.411.86.
According to Accival Brokerage, the risks that could prevent stocks on the BMV reaching their target of 32.50 pesos per share are: lower than expected trading volumes in the stock market, stock exchange or over the counter derivatives; a larger than expected compression of the higher price margin in stocks or derivatives; or if the Mexican government revokes the concessions to operate the trading and post-trading of the stock markets and equity derivatives.
The brokerage also said that the capital raised in infrastructure and real estate trusts (fibras) and share issues increased in the second quarter due to a total of three placements: two of shares, in Unifin and Gicsa; and one fibra, in Fibra HD. This was compared with just two issues in the previous quarter, but in line with the same period of 2014.
It said that in the second quarter of 2015, the three placements raised a total of 12.2 billion pesos ($758 million), up from 4.7 billion pesos in the first quarter, but a significantly lower than the 47.7 billion pesos in the same period of 2014.
BY ERIKA URBINA
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