Published On: Thu, Mar 13th, 2014

Low frequency of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean this year

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If weather predictions for this summer are accurate (assuming that the weather phenomenon known as ” El Niño” develops in the Equatorial Pacific), the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean will be low this year.

This was said by the National Weather Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional), which also announced the formation of 10 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30, figures slightly below the annual average of 12 for the last 60 years .

Besides, for the coming winter season more cold fronts and increased rainfall across the country are expected. And rains between March and May in Yucatan will be above the historical average .

Atlantic Ocean Prediction

The conditions of the atmosphere and the sea currents are favorable for the development of “El Niño” starting on July.

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The term El Niño—Spanish for “the Child”—was originally used by fishermen to refer to the Pacific Ocean warm currents near the coasts of Peru and Ecuador that appeared periodically around Christmas time and lasted for a few months. Due to those currents, fish were much less abundant than usual. At the present time we use the same name for the large-scale warming of surface waters of the Pacific Ocean every 3-6 years, which usually lasts for 9-12 months, but may continue for up to 18 months, and dramatically affects the weather worldwide.

Pacific Ocean Prediction

There is a 10% probability that the phenomenon of ” La Niña” is developed and therefore cold temperatures are predicted for the winter.

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La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water.

Sources:

 

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